Tariffs are taking a serious toll on profits, according to a monthly survey of supply managers in Iowa and eight other Midwestern states.
Creighton University Economics Professor Ernie Goss says nearly 42 percent of respondents report tariffs are having a negative impact, and almost a third say they’re passing along those costs.
Goss says states across the region are seeing stagnation, even as we head into what’s typically the busiest buying season of the year.
“Labor is not growing, in other words, employment is not growing. We’re seeing not much hiring and not much firing,” Goss says. “It’s a tough environment for those who are recently out of college, recently out of high school, looking for jobs. That’s the tough part.”
The Creighton survey found 58 percent of supply managers say the Iran conflict has made the supply chain less reliable, and Goss says that’s reflected in the faltering Gross Domestic Product.
“GDP is out to be slow growth for the rest of this year. Now that’s, of course, the fourth quarter. I expect the fourth quarter to come in close to zero, it could even go negative, but it’s not going to be strong.”
Consumers are paying more for all sorts of goods, with gasoline and diesel prices at or near record highs. Goss says practically all Iowans are feeling the economic pinch.
“Even on higher income individuals, they’re now going, they’re shopping at Walmart,” Goss says. “They used to laugh at us, those of us who shop at Walmart, and I’m one of them, they laugh at you, ‘Can’t you do any better than Walmart?’ Well, now they’re down there with us.”
Figures from the International Trade Association show Iowa exports of manufactured goods for the first seven months of this year fell by more than $254 million compared to the same period of last year, while state manufacturing exports plummeted by $760 million versus the same period in 2024.
